When the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks embarked upon their quantitative easing programs shortly after the Global Financial Crisis many feared that the impact would be inflationary.

In an open letter to then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, twenty-three of the most recognised economists, investors and analysts outlined their concerns:

“We believe the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called “quantitative easing”) should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. …

“As there are so many people who cannot wait to follow the prevailing trend of opinion, I am not surprised that a small group becomes an army.” — Josef de la Vega

Everything you see and hear is part of a narrative. Whether political, celebrity, financial, science, religious or sport. Every story we see is part of a narrative that makes sense on some level, be it personal, societal or cultural.

The prevailing narrative of our time is known as the zeitgeist. It includes the general intellectual, moral and cultural climate of a particular era and embodies all of our ideas and beliefs. The word zeitgeist comes from the German words Zeit, meaning “time”, and Geist, meaning “spirit”. …

2020 marks the 300-year anniversary of England’s most notorious speculative mania, and the first of many economic and financial crisis.

During the first half of 1720, the price of South Sea Company stock rose eight-fold reaching a peak in early July. Restrictions on the supply of shares, coupled with surging credit availability fueled the share buying bonanza. The fear of missing out on riches drove the share price even higher.

At its peak, the Company’s market worth was around twice the total value of all the land in England. Those charged with running the Company and connected to it in government knew they had a problem: they had to keep fueling the boom or fear that it would fall around their ears and potentially crash the economy. …

When we make decisions we tend to be swayed by what we remember. What we remember is influenced by many things including beliefs, expectations, emotions, and feelings as well as things like the frequency of exposure. The availability bias as it is known can substantially and unconsciously influence our judgment. We too easily assume that our recollections are representative and true and discount events that are outside of our immediate memory.

In 2016 insularity of opinion and experience led to shock and bewilderment for those on the losing side of two political events. People in the UK who voted ‘leave’ in the EU referendum were typically older and less active on social media than those who voted remain. If you only looked at activity online for the strength of opinion then you would have been forgiven for thinking that ‘remain’ had a strong lead. Similarly, in the US the geographical barrier between pro-Clinton seaboard states and the pro-Trump American heartland meant that few on the Clinton side would have been exposed to the concerns that encouraged Trump voters to come out in force. …

“In an age of images and entertainment, in an age of instant emotional gratification, we neither seek nor want honesty or reality. Reality is complicated. Reality is boring. We are incapable or unwilling to handle its confusion.” — Ryan Holiday, Trust Me, I’m Lying: Confessions of a Media Manipulator

We perceive the world from one perspective — our own. We accept the reality of the world with which we are presented. It is of course the only reality we know. The trouble is that it’s flawed. …

The immediate impact of the corona virus on the young is only now playing out: schools and universities have closed, many of their parents will have lost their jobs or face uncertainty about future income, and for the first time in their lives will have faced shortages for basic goods like pasta, rice and toilet rolls.

The second order effects are still anyone’s guess but some things have increased in probability over recent weeks. We are in a deep recession, if not an outright depression. As supply chains have broken down and governments have flooded the economy with money, inflation looks increasingly likely. …

“When people learn no tools of judgment and merely follow their hopes, the seeds of political manipulation are sown.” — Stephen Jay Gould

The real underlying currency of our world is not paper fiat, gold or even military might. It’s the narrative, and the ability to control it. Everything always comes down to this one real currency.

Governments, corporations and institutions seek to influence the actions of others; lobbying for looser regulations, campaigning for changes in consumer behaviour and normalising something that was previously only seen on the fringe. …

You’ve been asleep for five, six, maybe even eight hours if you’re lucky! One financial time zone has opened and closed while you’ve been in the land of nod. Something dramatic in the world might have happened that could affect your investments. You reach bleary eyed to your smartphone or switch on the TV. Just to check. Chances are though that nothing much has happened. The headlines from this morning probably won’t be important 17 hours later when you head back to bed.

But, that’s not what’s happened. The first headline you see makes you question one of your trades. Perhaps it wasn’t such a good idea anyway. In fact you begin to question why you were such an idiot for placing that trade. Before you’ve even had a chance to take a piss the cortisol levels are rising in your body. …